Over the past weeks/days there has been much said and written about Ukraine and the ‘likely’ Putin invasion, including by us at VALKYRIE (GB) LIMITED in regards to Cyber-attack concerns. The second guessing came to an end on Thursday when Putin launched his much-anticipated military operation. In the lead up to the invasion various World-leaders/Politicians had been warning of an invasion but remained skeptical that Putin was committed in any way to a peacefully resolution.
Valkyrie have received lots of questions and requests related to the situation and one question that keeps coming up is, why?
We are not experts in Ukraine/Russian politics, its history and the ‘thinking of Putin’. However, here is a brief attempt at a simplistic summary as to WHY Putin has taken this action and what’s behind it.
1. Tension between Moscow and Kyiv have remained since Ukraine declared itself independent of the Soviet Union in 1991
2. Tensions escalated in 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in southern Ukraine and sent troops to support a separatist uprising in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine
3. Putin maintains that Ukraine is fundamentally part of Russian civilisation, both culturally and historically, and has questioned whether it is even a real country
4. Putin also sees Russian dominance of Ukraine as fundamental to Russian security – the wider context is that the crisis is a challenge to what he views as an unfair agreement imposed on Russia at the end of the Cold War
5. Putin views NATO’s expansion towards Russia as an existential threat and claims Moscow’s military movements are a response to Ukraine’s ‘growing ties’ to the alliance and hopes that via this crisis he can push back
6. Putin assesses by asserting his power over Ukraine he is pushing to affirm Russia’s place among world powers, including the US and China
In addition to these 6 points, Putin is likely ‘interested’ in Ukraine for the following reasons: Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe (by area) with a population of over 43 million. Ukraine is an emerging democracy, Ukraine is a flourishing economy, Ukraine is an important industrialised country, Ukraine is an important agricultural country, Ukraine is important for natural resources – Ukraine is important to Europe and the West
If you require any help or advice, please contact Valkyrie at E: security@valkyrie.co.uk | T: +44 (0) 20 7499 9323
